Scientists Look at Climate Change, the Superstorm

Michael Oppenheimer, a climate scientist reported eight months ago that the “once in-a-century devastating floods in New York City would soon happen every three to twenty years.”  Oppenheimer cites global warming for the rise in sea levels and changing hurricane patterns.  A 2000 federal report also reported global warming effects on the United States and the possibility of flooding; yet, scientists still caution they “cannot link a single storm to global warming and any connection is not as clear and simple as environmental activists might content.”  Gerald North, a climate professor at Texas A&M University stated that “these things do happen, like the drought. It's a natural thing."

Scientists and hurricane experts now agree that as our climate temperature increases there will be fewer hurricanes; however, they will be “stronger and wetter.”  Oppenheimer researched New York City's record flood of 1821; Hurricane Sandy flooded even higher.

On October 30, 2012, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg stated, "What is clear is that the storms that we've experienced in the last year or so, around this country and around the world, are much more severe than before," Bloomberg said. "Whether that's global warming or what, I don't know. But we'll have to address those issues."  Governor Cuomo contends that major flooding appears to be occurring every two years now.

Obviously, I’m not a scientist but I still believe that climate change is having an impact causing this extreme weather.  All parts of this great country are seeing more frequency of these extreme events which are more deadly and costly than in years past.  With that being said, the evidence is clear- rising sea levels (which appear to be caused by global warming) are changing the intensity of hurricanes and increasing their destructive path.  I’m also still curious…how will this hurricane affect the presidential election in exactly one week?

As of October 30, 2012 the Weather Channels reports its five latest findings:

1.       Millions Without Power: some 8 million customers were without power.

2.      Numerous Fatalities Reported: The Associated Press has reported 45 fatalities; many of which were killed by falling trees.  Sandy also killed 69 people in the Caribbean.

3.      Next: Cold to Hamper Recovery: Behind the storm, cold air has moved into areas where the power is out where morning lows are in the 30s.

4.      More than Two Feet of Snow: over two feet in the central Appalachians; 29 inches in Redhouse, Md.; 24 inches in Terra Alta, W.V.

5.      Monday’s Hurricane-Force Wind Gusts: ranging from JFK airport 79 mph to 96 mph in Eatons Neck, N.Y.  Additionally, downed trees, power lines and other wind-related damage have been reported all along the east coast.

Source: http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/sandy-top-five-20121028

Article source: By SETH BORENSTEIN AP Science Writer

WASHINGTON October 31, 2012 (AP)

 

Editorial From: International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, Volume 3, Issue 1

Haigh, R., Amartunga, D., (2012). “Extreme weather will strike as climate change takes hold”, International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, Vol. 3 Iss: 1, pp.-

Have you ever wondered- what is going on with all this extreme weather?  Why in 2011 were there so many tornados?  There were 1691 documented tornados resulting in 553 deaths according to the NOAA National Weather Service. This summer drought plagued the United States.  The US Drought Monitor listed most of the state of Iowa as D3 Drought- Extreme.  http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/archive/20121023/pdfs/total_dm_121023.pdf

How about those hurricanes?  Right at this very moment, the north-northeast is preparing for what The Weather Channel is categorizing as a Category 1 hurricane- Sandy with winds of 75mph.  This system (also known as Frankenstorm) is parallel to the Carolina’s and is anticipated to be onshore Monday am near the mid-Atlantic and northeast United States which are heavily populated areas. This system will affect tens of millions of people in the areas of personal safety, property damage, communication, power outages- to name a few.  The cost of this hurricane could surpass a billion dollars!

In November 2011, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a special report on extreme weather.  The IPCC includes the world’s leading climate scientists convened by the United Nation.  In the report, over 22o scientists compiled information during a two year time period and the report is considered “the first comprehensive examination of scientific knowledge on the subject.”  The report cautions developed and underdeveloped countries citing that “rising sea levels will increase the vulnerability of coastal areas, and the increase in extreme weather events will wipe billions off national economies and destroy lives.”  Hmm…sounds like they predicted the future because consider what is going on with Hurricane Sandy at this very moment. 

The IPCC reports that there is clear and solid evidence that extreme weather events “are more likely.”  Underdeveloped nations will be the worst afflicted because of their geography and are less well prepared in their infrastructure, as well as lacking the economic resources necessary to protect their nation.  Developed countries will experience heatwaves, drought, and heavier rains.  Globally, “hot days become even hotter and occur more often,” increasing by a factor of 10 in most regions.  Tropical cyclones will increase and heavy precipitation will occur.

Could this be caused by human induced global warming?  The IPCC reflects “the difficulty in typing specific extreme weather events to human-induced global warming” because “there will always be variability in where and how frequently” such events occur. 

This editorial is quite profound to me.  Unprecedented weather extremes in the last few years seem to mirror what this report is stating.  I do, however, think that human induced global warming is having an impact on the weather.  Our reliance on fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and coal-fired power plants are having the greatest impact on climate change according to Green Peace.org.  Did you know that plastic is made from fossil fuels?  Think of all the plastic you use- then think of all those plastic bags…

Now back to Hurricane Sandy.  I’m fascinated by this and the potential of the unknown.  The Weather Channel has 5 reasons Sandy will be epic:

1.       A Northbound Hurricane: the extra-tropical storm system will get power from warmer ocean water.

2.      Early Winter Storm: This extra-tropical storm merges with a winter system.

3.      Artic Air from the North: Frigid air traveling south is coming from Canada.  (I feel like I need a blanket)

4.      High Tides Could Worsen Flooding: A full moon causes higher tides that produce more powerful winds- thus pushing water to low lying areas.

5.      Snow-wind Combo: Increases the risk for power outages.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/hurricane-sandy-superstorm-20121027

 

What an opportunity to delve into this topic with students- not only about climate change, but social implications, global warming, finance, health and safety.  At this point, millions of people are bracing for the hurricane by potentially evacuating, preparing their homes, shopping for necessities, and probably saying a few prayers.  Let’s keep them in our thoughts as they prepare for this extreme weather event of a lifetime.  I wonder how this will impact the presidential election…